In October, the harvest is expected to stabilize food consumption somewhat and sustain Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, but more extreme outcomes are not expected during this time as active conflict is not ongoing during the land preparation and planting season.Įmergency (IPC Phase 4) is also expected to be widespread in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, where drought conditions are forecast to persist through at least mid-2023 due to an unprecedented fifth consecutive poor rainfall season in late 2022. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, at a minimum, are expected to be widespread, and more extreme outcomes will likely remain possible through the peak of the lean season in September. Recent humanitarian aid distributions are mitigating food consumption deficits among recipients, but current levels remain far below the scale of need. Food prices are also exceptionally high, and given that most households must purchase nearly all of their food until the harvest, anecdotal reports suggest they are using high and severe levels of coping to survive. While households continue to engage in agricultural activities within Tigray as they are able, seasonal labor migration to West Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia – which is usually a critical source of income – is not a viable option due to insecurity. Tigray is expected to remain the area of highest concern until the start of the meher harvest in October. Prior to 2022, the highest recorded needs in this time period were in 2016 following the El-Nino drought. This statement is in relation to the 2014-2022 for which FEWS NET has comparable national needs estimates. Scaled-up and sustained food assistance, as well as unfettered humanitarian access, is needed immediately to save lives. Multiple areas of the country face the potential for more extreme outcomes associated with high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely be widespread in northern, central, southern, and southeastern Ethiopia through at least January 2023.
The severity of food insecurity in Ethiopia is among the worst globally, with record-breaking food assistance needs driven by the impacts of prolonged drought and ongoing insecurity.Food aid remains insufficient amid very high levels of hunger and malnutrition
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